How the Machine thinks
"The machine has simulated this season ten thousand times. The machine reports; you may weep."
Every week the Machine rebuilds its power ratings from what actually happened on the field. Then it plays the rest of the season ten thousand times and counts how often each outcome shows up.
That count is a probability. A 70% call means it happened in seven thousand of ten thousand simulated seasons. Nothing more, nothing less.
INPUTS results, schedule, margins
METHOD weekly power ratings · 10,000 season sims
OUTPUT probabilities. never odds.
The Machine speaks in probabilities, never odds. Probabilities, never odds.
The calibration ledger
We publish every probability and what actually happened. When we say 70%, does it happen 70% of the time? The receipts are public, including the misses and our audience forecasts for new towns.
No calls yet. The ledger starts empty and fills as the Machine publishes probabilities and the season answers them. Every call, hit or miss, lands here.
stats.json · public feed
Our numbers are a documented, public feed. Agents and reporters can read stats.json directly. That's a feature, not a leak.